Chinese companies lag far behind American frontrunners led by SpaceX, which plans to launch Starship, a massive prototype rocket that may one day send humans to Mars, on Thursday.
The gap is narrowing, however, as Beijing realises the value a solid commercial sector can add to its existing capabilities, experts told AFP.
It could even become similar to the development of electric vehicles where EV pioneer Tesla, also founded by Musk, was an early mover in China but now faces fierce competition from a host of homegrown rivals, said analyst Chen Lan.
“In five years, SpaceX may feel pressure,” Chen told AFP.
“The situation in today’s EV market will probably happen again when a lion (Tesla or SpaceX) faces a pack of wolves (Chinese companies).”
Tesla was recently overtaken by China’s BYD as the world’s top seller.
Beijing only opened up parts of the space sector to private capital in late 2014 but hundreds of companies have since sprung up.
A CERES-1 commercial rocket, for example, sent three satellites into orbit on Thursday, one of dozens of launches planned this year.
“China’s commercial space sector is impressively large and deep,” said Blaine Curcio, founder of Orbital Gateway Consulting.
While SpaceX is “vastly ahead” of its Chinese equivalent, “if we compare the fifth, or the 10th most-developed launch companies in the US and China, China is probably ahead”, he said.
China’s government has sent humans into orbit, built a space station and landed rovers on the Moon and Mars — where it aims to send crewed missions by 2030 and 2033 respectively.
In contrast, Chen said, the commercial sector is currently focused on low-cost launch vehicles and small satellites.
However, this launching capacity will be critical to China’s aim of establishing satellite mega-constellations, state broadcaster CCTV reported in April.
China is developing two such networks: Guowang, set to consist of 13,000 spacecraft, and G60 Starlink, envisioned at 12,000.
Chinese satellites currently in orbit, though, number in the hundreds rather than thousands.
CCTV said speed was vital because China’s satellite plans face multiple competitors and a limit on both the number of spacecraft in orbit and available frequencies for use.
Its report made repeated references to SpaceX, whose Falcon 9 rockets act as workhorses for NASA, and whose Starlink satellite constellation now covers dozens of countries.
China harnessing commercial launching capacity in a similar way would “help traditional state-owned players focus on civil and military programmes… while also boosting China’s overall launch and space capabilities and meeting national strategic goals”, wrote SpaceNews.com’s Andrew Jones.
The opportunity must be grasped in the next five to 10 years “to help our country seize the right to speak in the space of the future”, CCTV quoted a representative of domestic firm LandSpace as saying.
